South Dakota Republicans are now reportedly headed for a high-profile July runoff after no candidate in the state’s crowded gubernatorial primary managed to secure the support needed to win the nomination outright on Tuesday.
With four major candidates competing for the Republican nomination, the vote was split enough to prevent anyone from reaching the threshold required under state law, setting the stage for a decisive showdown later this summer.
According to Decision Desk HQ, businessman Toby Doeden finished in first place with 30.6 percent of the vote, giving him an early advantage heading into the next phase of the contest. Incumbent Gov. Larry Rhoden secured the second runoff position with just over 25 percent of the vote, narrowly holding off challenges from Rep. Dusty Johnson and state House Speaker Jon Hansen.
South Dakota’s election rules require gubernatorial candidates to receive at least 35 percent of the vote in a primary featuring three or more candidates. If no contender reaches that mark, the top two finishers advance to a runoff election.
Because none of the candidates crossed the 35 percent threshold, voters will return to the polls on July 28 to determine the Republican nominee.
The outcome creates a significant test for both remaining candidates. Doeden, a businessman who has promoted himself as the “fiercest ally to President Trump in the nation,” enters the runoff with momentum after finishing atop the field on election night.
Meanwhile, Rhoden will attempt to leverage the advantages of incumbency as he seeks to remain in office. Rhoden became governor after former Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem left the governor’s mansion to join the Trump administration, placing him in the state’s top executive role during a period of transition.
The runoff will now give Republican voters a direct choice between two distinct candidates, with the winner moving on to the general election later this year.
For Rhoden, the stakes are particularly high. If Doeden is able to build on his first-place finish and carry that momentum into July, the governor could become the first sitting governor to lose a primary election since former Kansas Gov. Jeff Colyer was defeated in a Republican primary in 2018.
While Tuesday’s results demonstrated strong support for Doeden, they also revealed a divided Republican electorate, with votes spread across four candidates rather than concentrated behind a single contender. The runoff now offers both finalists an opportunity to consolidate support from voters whose preferred candidates did not advance.
Political observers will likely watch closely to see where supporters of Johnson and Hansen ultimately land in the weeks ahead. Their decisions could prove important in determining the outcome of what is expected to be a closely watched contest.
The winner of the Republican runoff will move on to face Democratic nominee Dan Ahlers, a former state senator who secured his party’s nomination without opposition.
Although the general election remains months away, Republicans enter the fall campaign in a strong position. The GOP has consistently dominated statewide elections in South Dakota, making the Republican nominee the favorite heading into November.
For now, however, the focus remains squarely on the July runoff, where Republican voters will determine who will carry the party’s banner into the general election. With no candidate able to secure a decisive victory in the primary, the race now enters a new phase that could reshape South Dakota’s political landscape and determine the future direction of the governor’s office.
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