Veteran political analyst Mark Halperin said he believes Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico has a legitimate opportunity to defeat Republican Ken Paxton in Texas, a prediction that drew a stunned response from Megyn Kelly during a discussion on The Megyn Kelly Show.
The pair examined the closely watched Texas Senate race, where Paxton enters the contest with the endorsement of President Donald Trump and the historical advantage Republicans have long enjoyed in the heavily red state. Despite those factors, Kelly noted that polling has shown Talarico holding a lead, surprising many political observers.
Halperin acknowledged that he has also been surprised by the direction the race has taken.
“I’m second to no political analyst for the last 20 years in laughing at Democrats wasting money trying to win races in Texas,” Halperin said.
The longtime political journalist explained that throughout his career he has consistently argued Democrats were unlikely to win statewide races in Texas despite changing demographics.
“I have been consistent in looking at the demographics and saying, maybe someday, but not now,” he said.
Halperin argued that the current political environment has altered that outlook.
“Because of the climate, because of how unpopular President Trump is, and because of Ken Paxton’s unpopularity, if the election were held today, I believe Talarico would win,” Halperin said.
Although he predicted Talarico would prevail if the election were held immediately, Halperin emphasized that Republicans still have time to change the course of the race.
He said the GOP’s path to victory depends on drawing a sharp contrast between Paxton and the Democratic nominee.
“They will say, do you want common sense or do you want a communist?” Halperin said. “Do you want common sense, or do want kooky?”
According to Halperin, Republicans can still win the election if they successfully execute that strategy and shift the campaign’s current trajectory.
“And if they can do that and turn things around, they’ll win, but they must execute,” he said.
Halperin added that, based on the race’s current direction, Talarico would win unless Republicans are able to change the dynamics before Election Day.
“In other words, on the current trajectory, as long as it’s been since the Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas, as much as Talarico has said many things that would in a normal cycle disqualify him for Texas voters, he will win unless the Republicans can change the current trajectory of the race,” Halperin said.
He added that he believes similar political dynamics are unfolding in several other races around the country.
Kelly reacted with visible surprise to Halperin’s assessment.
“That’s stunning,” she said after hearing his prediction.
“It is,” Halperin replied as Kelly repeated her disbelief.
Seeking to reinforce his credibility on the issue, Halperin pointed to his own record of election analysis, saying he has never before believed Democrats had a realistic chance to capture a statewide office in Texas.
“You can go check my record,” Halperin said. “There’s not been a single cycle, presidential or midterm, where I have given Democrats a chance to win a statewide race in Texas.”
He stressed that he had consistently dismissed the possibility in previous election cycles.
“Not a chance, wasn’t even open to it,” Halperin said.
Still, he concluded that the political environment has changed enough to make the race competitive, while maintaining that Republicans can still reverse the trend if they alter the campaign’s current course.
“But it’s happening now unless the Republicans fix it,” he said.
