Veteran Republican strategist and longtime GOP power broker Karl Rove is sounding the alarm over Republicans’ prospects in November, warning that even favorable redistricting maps may not be enough to save the party if President Donald Trump continues on his current trajectory.
Writing in The Wall Street Journal under the headline “Gerrymandering Isn’t Enough for the GOP,” Rove argued that Republicans are entering dangerous political territory despite efforts to strengthen their House majority through redistricting. According to Rove, polling trends are moving sharply in Democrats’ favor at a time when economic anxiety and concerns over foreign conflict are weighing heavily on voters.
Rove pointed to recent polling averages showing Democrats with a sizable edge on the generic congressional ballot. He cited Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin average, which shows Democrats leading by 6.6 points, along with a recent The New York Times/Siena survey showing an even larger 11-point advantage.
The longtime Republican operative suggested the growing gap is closely tied to Trump’s declining approval ratings. Rove noted that the president’s approval had fallen to 39.8% in the RealClearPolitics average, which he described as the lowest level of Trump’s second term so far.
Rove was especially critical of what he characterized as inconsistent messaging from the administration surrounding the Iran conflict. While many conservatives continue to support a strong national defense, there has also been growing unease within parts of the Republican base about prolonged foreign entanglements and the political costs that often accompany them. Rove argued that the White House has failed to project a steady and reassuring tone during a tense period overseas.
“Making things worse are Mr. Trump’s erratic late-night missives,” Rove wrote, adding that the president sometimes comes across “more as a heckler at a UFC match than as a reassuring wartime commander in chief.”
The criticism did not stop with foreign policy. Rove also argued that Trump has undermined his own domestic messaging by allowing controversial moments to overshadow policy announcements that may have otherwise resonated with voters.
He pointed to Trump’s announcement that 600 generic drugs would be added to the government’s online low-cost drugstore as an example of a politically effective initiative that quickly lost momentum amid other headlines. According to Rove, voters are more likely to remember Trump’s appearance at a White House ballroom construction site, where the president promoted a $1 billion request for security measures and boasted about the future building project.
Rove argued that such messaging risks alienating Americans already struggling with high gas prices, particularly after Trump dismissed $5-per-gallon gasoline as “peanuts.”
The Fox News contributor ultimately urged Trump to continue helping Republicans raise money while limiting his direct presence on the campaign trail. Rove suggested GOP candidates would benefit from creating some distance from the president and from controversial spending proposals, including what he described as a $1.8 billion “slush fund” that critics fear could benefit Jan. 6 defendants.
“The more undisciplined the White House messages on war and the economy, the more at risk GOP candidates will be,” Rove concluded. “Gerrymandering helped Republicans. But the president’s actions are helping Democrats. That could give Democrats the House.”
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