President Trump heads back to Texas on Wednesday for his third visit in a month. Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton is trying to overtake Democrat James Talarico in one of the country’s most closely watched Senate races.
The San Antonio rally is the latest stop on the president’s tour of red states. The tour is meant to energize GOP voters as several major midterm forecasts tilt toward Democrats. Last month, Trump spoke at the Republican National Committee’s “Trump-a-palooza” rally in Dallas. Last week, he rallied supporters at a motor plant in Denton.
Democrats have come up short statewide in Texas for decades. Republicans are now playing defense, though, amid Trump’s weak approval ratings, voter frustration over the economy, the war in Iran and immigration, and Paxton’s past controversies.
Paxton, the state’s attorney general, is set to speak at the rally, which he hopes will “keep Texas red and keep America first.” Republican House hopeful Carlos De La Cruz will also be there. He is in a tight race with Democrat Johnny Garcia in the 35th District, a seat reshaped by GOP-friendly redistricting.
“Republicans are worried. They need Trump to elevate Republican turnout, and it’s clear that Paxton on his own can’t do it,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston political science professor. He called the frequent visits “a real warning sign for Republicans.”
Decision Desk HQ’s polling average shows Talarico ahead by about 3 points, with recent surveys within the margin of error. DDHQ gives Talarico a 56 percent chance of flipping the seat. Cook Political Report moved the race to “toss-up” in August. On Monday, Vote Hub shifted it from “tilt D” to “lean D.”
It is already the most expensive Senate race of the cycle, and the money keeps coming:
MAGA Inc. put $10 million into the race in early September.
Elon Musk’s super PAC has spent more than $6 million backing Paxton in recent weeks, according to the San Antonio Current.
Texas PAC, which is tied to the GOP’s Senate Leadership Fund, has spent $131 million for Paxton, Axios reported.
Major Democratic groups have yet to spend big in Texas, but the party’s Senate super PAC was preparing last week to make an initial investment. Talarico raised $30 million in the second quarter to Paxton’s $9 million. Paxton’s campaign said Monday it raised $18 million in the third quarter. Talarico has not released his third-quarter numbers yet.
“This is a turnout election, and has been from the very beginning,” Texas GOP consultant Vinny Minchillo said. “Bringing the president in is going to rally the faithful.”
In leaked audio published last week by The New York Times, Paxton admitted his numbers dropped after the convention and called them “not good.” A Paxton adviser called the Times report “manipulated nonsense.”
In Denton, Trump joked that Paxton was “a pain in the a–” and “a little controversial.” Minchillo said the president’s message amounted to “He’s our guy and you need to support him.”
Paxton beat incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, for the nomination with a late Trump endorsement. He survived a 2023 impeachment on corruption charges. His wife filed for divorce last year, citing “biblical grounds.”
Rottinghaus called Trump’s visits a “catch-22,” because the president energizes core Republicans but is toxic among many swing voters.
Gov. Greg Abbott, who faces Democrat Gina Hinojosa, is not expected to attend because of scheduling conflicts. Experts say Republicans may gain only two or three of the five House seats they hoped to win through redistricting. That is driven partly by Latino voters’ growing frustration with Trump on the economy and immigration.
