Melania Documentary Defies Critics, Surges Past Expectations at Box Office

Is Melania Trump about to become Hollywood’s newest surprise success story? The First Lady has undeniably shaken up the entertainment press with the stronger-than-expected debut of her new documentary, Melania.

Despite harsh reviews from critics and early skepticism that the film would flop, industry projections now estimate Melania will bring in $8.1 million during its opening weekend.

That figure not only exceeds early expectations but also places the documentary ahead of several high-profile releases. According to The Hollywood Reporter, if the forecast holds, the film will land at No. 3 for the weekend box office, trailing only Send Help and Iron Lung, while outperforming Jason Statham’s latest action film, Shelter.

The result caught many in Hollywood off guard. Prior to opening, industry chatter suggested Melania was headed for disaster, fueled by reports of empty or nearly empty seat maps in theaters nationwide. Instead, the documentary appears to have found a motivated and reliable audience.

The Hollywood Reporter noted that the film is “galvanizing conservatives,” particularly in the South. Data showed that older viewers turned out in force, with women over the age of 55 making up 72 percent of the opening-day audience. Even more striking, a reported 78 percent of all ticket buyers were 55 or older, underscoring the film’s appeal to a demographic often overlooked by Hollywood studios.

Professional critics, however, have been far less kind. On Rotten Tomatoes, Melania currently holds an 11 percent approval rating from critics, signaling widespread disapproval among traditional movie reviewers.

Audiences tell a very different story. Deadline reported that viewer reactions have been overwhelmingly positive, a trend that could help the film maintain momentum in the coming weeks. Exit scores were described as exceptional, including an A CinemaScore, five stars on Screen Engine and Comscore’s PostTrak, and an 89 percent “definite recommend” rating. Deadline noted that numbers in the 70 percent range are typically considered outstanding, making Melania’s performance particularly notable.

Those strong audience reactions could encourage more supporters of Donald Trump to head to theaters to see the First Lady’s project, especially as word-of-mouth spreads among its core demographic.

Variety also highlighted the surprise success, calling the $8.1 million opening a “significant uptick” from initial projections that ranged between $3 million and $5 million. On the East Coast, The New York Times reported that Melania is on track for the strongest opening for a documentary, excluding concert films, in 14 years.

The documentary chronicles Melania Trump during the 20 days leading up to Election Day in 2024. It was directed by Brett Ratner and acquired by Amazon, which reportedly paid $40 million for the film and spent an additional $35 million on marketing.

Given that hefty investment, even a strong opening weekend may not be enough to justify a sequel. For now, however, Melania has delivered something few in Hollywood expected: a documentary that critics dismissed but audiences showed up to support in surprising numbers.