Veteran Republican strategist Karl Rove warned that the GOP is facing growing trouble in Texas, saying Hispanic support for President Donald Trump is sliding and threatening Republican gains made in the last election. Rove raised the concerns during a recent appearance on Fox News, where he pointed to immigration enforcement and political messaging as key factors behind the shift.
Appearing Saturday on Fox News’ The Journal Editorial Report, Rove responded to a question from host Gerry Baker about Trump’s declining popularity on immigration. Rove said the downturn began before last week’s incident in Minneapolis, referencing the shooting of Renee Good by an ICE agent. According to Rove, the administration’s numbers were already falling ahead of that event, suggesting deeper concerns among voters.
Rove argued that many Americans draw a distinction between illegal immigrants who commit crimes and those who quietly work, obey the law, and contribute to the economy. He said voters are often more forgiving toward those who have “kept their nose clean,” and suggested that the administration failed to capitalize politically on its border enforcement success. Rove said Trump missed an opportunity by not traveling to south Texas to publicly highlight what he described as a major accomplishment in securing the border.
Baker followed up by noting that ICE enforcement tactics appear to be causing particular concern among Hispanic voters. He pointed out that Hispanic voters were a major source of strength for Trump in the 2024 election, when the president captured more than 40 percent of that vote. Baker asked how serious a problem it is for Republicans that Trump’s approval ratings among Hispanics are now far below those levels.
Rove responded that the issue is significant, describing Hispanic voters as a variable group whose movement toward Republicans in 2024 played a major role in Trump’s return to the White House and in helping Republicans maintain control of both the Senate and the House. Rove said the current trend is a problem for the GOP and warned that the effects are already becoming visible in Texas.
According to Rove, support for Republicans in Texas is diminishing, even though there was initially strong backing for the administration’s actions to secure the border. He said many of the communities now showing signs of political movement were among those most heavily impacted by illegal immigration in the first place.
Rove explained that hospitals, food kitchens, and community safety in those areas were being strained by what he described as a vast flood of illegal immigrants crossing the border. He credited Trump with stopping that flow and emphasized that the president achieved it without passing a new law, relying instead on executive action after taking office.
Rove said that accomplishment initially generated enormous support in affected communities, but suggested that current enforcement tactics are now eroding goodwill. He implied that the administration’s approach risks alienating voters who once viewed border security as a necessary step to restore order and relieve pressure on local resources.
The warning from Rove highlights ongoing tension within Republican circles over how immigration enforcement is perceived by key voting blocs. While border security remains a central GOP priority, Rove’s comments suggest that messaging and execution could determine whether recent Republican gains among Hispanic voters are sustained or reversed, particularly in a state as politically significant as Texas.
