Nate Silver, a polling and data expert, said Wednesday that Vice President Kamala Harris is slightly favored to win the presidential election if it were held tomorrow, but warned the public not to rely too heavily on polls, citing their track record of getting it “wrong” when it comes to former President Trump.
The famed election analyst and statistician posted a polling update on his Substack projection page earlier Wednesday, citing a string of “strong swing state” polling for Harris.
“If you have the election tomorrow… I think Harris would be a slight favorite. She has been ahead in most recent polling in the ‘blue wall’ states, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada all polling in the margin of error range.” Silver said during a recent Fox News appearance.
“People should remember, though, two things. One, we have three more months to go. There will be more surprises. And two, the polls have been wrong before. In both the last two general elections they underestimated Trump.” he continued.
“Now that the election is in Kamala mode, however, it’s far from clear whose position you’d rather be in, and I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to bet either on Harris or on Trump,” Silver had previously written on his Substack.
Silver recently modified his election prediction to “toss-up” after previously projecting that former President Trump would be electorally favored to win the White House in November, with Harris winning the popular vote.
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