Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., has narrowly moved ahead of California Gov. Gavin Newsom in early prediction-market odds for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.
As of Wednesday, Ocasio-Cortez was given an 18% chance of securing the Democratic nomination on Polymarket, putting the New York congresswoman just ahead of Newsom, who stood at 17%.
Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., was close behind the two Democrats, ranking third with roughly a 16% chance, according to the prediction-market data.
The numbers put three prominent Democrats within just two percentage points of one another as speculation continues about who could eventually compete for the party’s presidential nomination in 2028.
Ocasio-Cortez has received increased attention this week following her announcement that she is in the process of freezing her eggs.
The congresswoman has been openly documenting the process on social media, giving followers a look at the fertility treatment she is undergoing.
Her decision to publicly share the process has generated mixed reactions.
While Ocasio-Cortez currently holds the narrow advantage over Newsom on Polymarket, another prediction market paints a different picture of the early Democratic field.
Traders on Kalshi continue to place Newsom ahead of Ocasio-Cortez, ranking the California governor as the favorite for the Democratic presidential nomination.
The competing numbers underscore the uncertainty surrounding a presidential contest that remains years away.
Neither set of prediction-market figures amounts to formal polling, and the numbers do not necessarily indicate which Democrats will ultimately decide to seek the White House in 2028.
Instead, the figures reflect the current sentiment of traders participating in the prediction markets.
Ocasio-Cortez’s position atop the Polymarket numbers comes as the New York Democrat continues attracting attention both politically and personally.
Her announcement about freezing her eggs, along with her decision to chronicle the process on social media, has placed her in the spotlight this week and prompted a range of reactions.
Newsom, meanwhile, remains directly behind Ocasio-Cortez on Polymarket while maintaining the top position among traders on Kalshi.
Ossoff’s roughly 16% showing on Polymarket also places the Georgia senator within striking distance of both Ocasio-Cortez and Newsom in the early market.
For now, the prediction markets offer two different pictures of who sits atop the potential Democratic field.
Ocasio-Cortez holds a razor-thin advantage on Polymarket, with Newsom trailing by only one percentage point and Ossoff another point behind.
Kalshi traders, however, continue to favor Newsom.
With the 2028 presidential race still years away, the early figures remain a measure of prediction-market sentiment rather than a formal assessment of Democratic voters or a determination of which potential candidates will actually enter the race.
