Home prices are now reportedly expected to decline throughout Florida this year, as indicated by real estate consultant Nick Gerli, providing optimism for prospective homebuyers who have been excluded from the market in recent years.
During the pandemic, home prices in Florida surged more than in other regions of the country due to an influx of individuals relocating to the state for distant employment opportunities, which heightened demand amidst a persistent inventory shortage.
The natural decline in in-migration post-pandemic, along with the increase in mortgage rates due to the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation, has subsequently tempered the formerly thriving Florida market.
According to various experts, a recent influx of new inventory, along with persistently high mortgage rates, will contribute to a decline in prices across numerous regions of the state.
The average property worth in Florida increased by around 60 percent over the last five years, as reported by Reventure App.
In November 2019, the average home value in Florida was $243,000; by November 2024, it had risen to $389,000. Simultaneously, mortgage rates increased from 3.7 percent to 6.8 percent.
According to Gerli, inventory and active listings have increased since 2021 and currently exceed 150,000, marking the greatest level since 2017.
Recent Realtor.com data indicates price reductions in multiple Florida communities among the 50 largest metropolitan areas in the country.
In December 2024, the median home listing price in Jacksonville decreased by 5.7 percent over the previous year, totaling $384,500.
In the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach metropolitan area, the median listing price decreased by 9.9 percent, totaling $522,500.
In the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford area, it decreased by 4.3 percent, reaching $419,950. In the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater area, it decreased by 6.0 percent, reaching $395,000.
Certain locations had substantial rises in new listings. In December 2024, new listings in Jacksonville increased by 2.5 percent year-on-year; in Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, they rose by 11.3 percent; and in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, they ascended by 8.0 percent.
In the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford area, active listings decreased by 8.5 percent.
The anticipated occurrence in Florida is not a collapse, but rather a normalization of the housing market following years of heightened demand and soaring prices.
Although several regions are witnessing price reductions, property prices continue to ascend at the state level.
Redfin reports that the median sale price of a home in Florida was $410,900 in December 2024, reflecting a 1.8 percent increase from the previous year.
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